The Leaky Thesis

i'm learning about stocks and the market. My recent brainwave is a twist on the idea that stock prices are effected by events in the world.

How do we get news about those events? Corporate and state controlled journalism is unreliable and seems to be intentionally inaccurate. That shouldn't be news to anyone 😉

Maybe stocks are leaky, price actions could convey usable intel about what's real. One theory that"s been both implied and stated outright by successful investors is that the cvid phenomenon has been either deployed or opportunistically repurposed by central bankers as a smokescreen to cover up blunders, plunder, etc. or to obscure an agenda.

Maybe that agenda is a centrally controlled (and surveilled) basket of national crypto currencies. This would imply a global deletion of cash, and the end of private transactions. One might expect that cash-like alternatives would respond, become more prominent, reminiscent of the quip by Jeff Goldbloom's character in Jurassic Park, 'life finds a way'.

Could the major gold stocks be rising not because of panic from cvid, but because a cash killing agenda is in play that started way before cvid? If stocks are a source of intel about what is real, we might expect to see the major gold concerns rising BEFORE cvid became a world wide phenomenon, indicating that there was a pre-cvid trigger.

A condensed history according to corporate journalism - first cvid case in China was 11/17/19, by 12/31/19 China confirmed dozens of cases, 1/21/20 first case in USA, 1/23/20 lockdown in Wuhan.

What do the gold stocks tell us?

The major gold miner Barrick Gold responded to cvid with a significant jump up starting in mid February 2020, when the news just started to hit.

But wait! Barrick blipped up in mid December 2019...

Here's Sprott's Gold Miner ETF, a basket of gold miner stocks jumping up early on. Notice that not much is happening at all with this basket until the blip up in December 2019.

Frano Nevada is a precious metals streaming company, described as one of the smartest businesses in the sector. Franco seemed to respond very early too, in mid December 2019.

And here's Wheaton Precious Metals, another big streamer also responding early.

Sprott's physical gold and silver trust, a reputable gold vault seems also to respond in late December of 2019 after a month long low.

This thesis is intriguing, I'll continue to explore the leakiness of stocks and the gold sector specifically.